Missouri basketball vs Florida: Scouting report, score prediction for SEC Tournament game
NASHVILLE, Tenn. — After getting over the line with a late push Thursday, the Gators await.
No. 7 seed Missouri basketball will face off against No. 2 seed Florida in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament on Friday evening at Bridgestone Arena, one day after the Tigers ended a three-game losing streak by beating Mississippi State to advance in Music City.
Mizzou (22-10) defeated the Bulldogs 85-73 on Thursday, and had to do so without leading scorer Mark Mitchell in the second half as the forward sat with a right knee injury. It's unclear whether he will return against UF. Tamar Bates led the Tigers with 25 points against MSU.
Florida (27-4) earned a double-bye straight to the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament courtesy of its regular season performance, meaning the Gators have not played since Saturday.
The winner of the game between MU and UF will play either Kentucky or Alabama in the semifinals on Saturday.
Here’s what you need to know about Florida before Friday’s game:
What are Florida weaknesses leading into Missouri basketball game?
They’re few and far between.
The Gators have been consistently elite on offense and have been one of the better defensive units in the SEC lately. There aren’t many analytical categories where Florida falls woefully short, at least according to CBB Analytics’ metrics.
One clear shortcoming, however, is free throws.
UF’s opponents are attempting free throws at a 37.5% rate when weighed against field goal attempts, which ranks in the bottom 20% of the country and means the Gators are sending teams to the stripe quite often.
Florida also only owns a 32.2% free throw attempt rate, which ranks in the bottom three in the SEC.
It’s not much, but it’s one potential weakness Mizzou coach Dennis Gates may attempt to exploit.
What are Florida’s recent strengths?
There’s a reason we say Florida’s weaknesses are minimal: Over the past five games, coach Todd Golden’s team nets out as the best team in the league with a +14.6 differential per 100 possessions over that span.
The Gators make their money by being an elite offensive unit, though.
They score 1.236 points per possession, which is in the 99th percentile nationwide. They have a 40.2% offensive rebounding rate, which also ranks in the 99th percentile. Their turnover rate is 11.7%, which is in the 98th percentile. They own the top mark in the country for sheer volume of field goal attempts, and convert from both inside and outside the arc at a clip that ranks in the top quarter of all Division-I teams.
That’s a lot for one team to simultaneously do well — and a lot for MU to handle Friday.
Player to watch: Alex Condon
With Mitchell’s status in question, the Tigers are lacking some length and height.
Condon is the player that may benefit the most. The 6-foot-11 forward had a 17-point, 15-rebound in the Gators’ regular-season finale, which is a warning sign for what he’s capable of producing.
Mizzou did well to limit him earlier this season, holding Condon to six rebounds, all defensive, and eight points. That made UF’s offense relatively one-dimensional, as it lagged behind its normal production in the post and on second-chance opportunities.
How can Mizzou beat Florida?
The recipe in MU’s win in Gainesville was fairly simple: Missouri’s attack was balanced and lethal.
Caleb Grill shot 6-of-11 from deep. Four players scored 10 or more points. Three more put up at least five points. The Tigers jumped out to a big lead early and weathered a second half storm to claim a top-five road win.
Mizzou has to put in a complete offensive performance to stand any chance. Grill needs to be better than his 2-of-11 night from the field against Mississippi State. The Tigers need similar performances out of Bates and Perkins, who had 25 and 20 points, respectively, against the Bulldogs.
And the Tigers can’t let multiple UF players — whether it’s Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin or anyone else — start to produce consistent points.
It’s a lot to ask, but that’s what it takes against a stout opponent.
Score prediction: Florida 92, Missouri 81
Mizzou may be without Mitchell against Florida, and if there is any doubt about his health probably should keep him on the sideline to make sure he is healthy for the NCAA Tournament.
Assuming the Tigers are without their leading scorer, Friday’s quarterfinal against one of the nation’s top teams becomes a mammoth task — and one we don’t see them overcoming.
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Scouting report, score prediction for Missouri vs Florida in SEC Tournament
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